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Complexity-Based Approach to Calibration with Checking Rules
This video was recorded at 24th Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), Budapest 2011. We consider the problem of forecasting a sequence of outcomes from an unknown source. The quality of the forecaster is measured by a family of checking rules. We prove upper bounds on the value of the associated game, thus certifying the existence of a calibrated strategy for the forecaster. We show that complexity of the family of checking rules can be captured by the notion of a sequential cover introduced in [19]. Various natural assumptions on the class of checking rules are considered, including finiteness of Vapnik-Chervonenkis and Littlestone's dimensions.
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This work is licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States
