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The Variance Preservation Premium: Why Independent Sources of Novelty Can Increase Resilience Under Model Uncertainty
This independent technical and philosophical paper develops a conditional decision-theoretic account of the variance preservation premium: the expected net value of retaining differently structured and epistemically non-redundant sources under model uncertainty. It examines value of information, correlated-error reduction, novelty generation, robust decision-making, dynamic option value, irreversible source loss, substitution uncertainty,...
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